Saturday, 13 November 2010

...JDM in practice...

Judgement: (evaluation)
The Dilemma:
Coursework due for completion in 7 days time.
Considerations:
Time needed to complete project - more than I've got
Time available to complete project - not enough
Decision: (course of action)
Establish requirements and expectations:
Group project - organisation of overall project - check
                          organisation of individual input - check
                          time line - (anal I know) - check
                          inclusion without exclusion - check

Conclusion 1: A perfect world would have seen me, today, polishing my coursework ready to hand in, but Sods Law ("what can go wrong, will go wrong") has been in play and instead I am just starting. The main impedement to making a start, the requirements and expectations, has now been clarified and some order has been restored. Allowing a second process to begin:
Judgement:
Remains the same
Decision:
Do some work!
Conclusion 2: Thats simple then, all sorted! If only it was that simple, the situation remains the same but yet more decisions need to be made...what questions to answer? what approach to take? when to work on this component and when to work on others? When to 'fit' study into the rest of my life? and so on.
I use this example to illustrate the complexity of decision making in everyday life. This example is one of many processes of decision making that I need to attend to just today, regarding one component of my study which is one aspect of my life. I'm fairly certain that this situation is not uncommon to anyone reading this, it is hardly surprising then that I use 'generalisations' of information available to me in order to make decisions and worry about the bias and errors later (if they have any impact).
This example is realtively simple to analyse and reduce to individual components of effect.  Decisions made in the first instance effect future decisions about the dilemma and may even reformulate the judgement. The concept that judgements and decisions are made in isolation of each other is sterile and life is usually anything but sterile. This is why, in my opinion, simulated predictions of behaviour fail to predict actual behaviour. Simulations rarely take into account the rich tapestry of individual differences, biases and most importantly errors. Is this a bad thing? I think not.

No comments:

Post a Comment